This is the final installment of 30 Rock Emmy Dreams before the Emmys take place tomorrow.

Today we analyze the big prize:

Outstanding Comedy Series

Modern Family:
Tape A: “Old Wagon” & “Someone to Watch over Lily”
Tape B: “Mother’s Day” & “Caught in the Act”
Tape C: “Manny Get your Gun” & “The Kiss”

I’ve seen all these tapes and they each have one outstanding episode (…Lily, Caught in the Act, Manny Get Your Gun) but the other episodes are average and mostly forgettable.  The ensemble and writing shines in all these episodes though.  Praise for this show only dwindled slightly in its second season and the competition (with the exception of Parks) stayed about the same.  With a field that changed this little, it would be the easy vote for a voter and I expect it may win again.

30 Rock:
Tape A: “When it Rains, it Pours” & “Live Show (West Coast)”
Tape B: “Reaganing” & “Double Edged Sword”
Tape C: “Operation Righteous Cowboy Lightning” & “TGS Hates Women”

Tape wise, 30 Rock as always was on fire.  Whoever picks the tapes does a great job, though I would have put in “Mrs. Donaghy” and the satire heavy “Brooklyn Without Limits.”  The inclusion of “Live Show” is risky.  Of course there are those that didn’t like it but I think it shows 30 Rock has range as is determined to try new things.  But I fear they left out a solid episode like “Mrs. Donaghy” that shows off what’s truely great about 30 Rock: the writing (as well as a strong Liz/Jack dynamic episode).  “Brooklyn Without Limits” should have been switched for “TGS Hates Women” which may be greating.  BWL seemed like the obvious choice as we seem to focus more and more on the 2012 election.  BWL provides a lot of great satire and that’s often what 30 Rock does best.

Sure there were some misses this season, but at Emmy time its about who can put together the best tapes, and I think 30 Rock did that here.  Still it suffers from Awards fatigue and an inability to top itself as critics apparently demand.  IF voters voted purely on tapes, 30 Rock would have a decent chance of taking this, but I fear they will pay attention to other factors.

Glee:
Tape A: “Audition” & “Silly Little Love Songs”
Tape B: “Original Songs” & “The Substitute”
Tape C: “Duets” & “Never Been Kissed”

Glee is not as much of a phenomenon as it was in its first season.  Buzz for this show has died a lot and it’s clear that this show lacks the traditional elements to make a Series winner (developed characters, strong writing, strong acting ect.)  There are still many elements that Glee is strong on (Directing, musical numbers, vocal talent) but I think these will once again get overlooked or rather ignored as voters search for funny shows.   I admit my tv watching knowledge has a bit of a gap in this show, but I’m surprised they omitted one of the episodes I saw: “Grilled Cheesus” in which a character deals with his dad almost dying.  It was pure awards bait, but I guess it’s nice they stayed away from after school specials in their submissions.  On the contrary the other episode I watched after the super bowl “Sue Slyvester Super Bowl Shuffle” was right to be excluded cause it was terrible.  I’m less nervous about this winning than last year.  I think it has less of a chance then before.

Parks and Recreation:
Tape A: “Flu Season” & “Ron & Tammy: Part 2″
Tape B: “Fancy Party” & “Harvest Festival”
Tape C: “The Fight & “Lil’ Sebastian”

This show was perfect last season.  They went 16/16 with great episodes.  There wasn’t a bad storyline or moment in the bunch.  I do think 30 Rock can produce funnier tapes, but as far as consistency and characters go, this show was unparallelled last season.  In my opinion this show deserves the win.  Of course I’d love to see 30 Rock win again, but they already have three, so I’m more eager to see deserving shows recognized.  The tapes were near perfect.  I’d only switch out Ron & Tammy for maybe “Jerrys Painting”, “Media Blitz” or “Road Trip.”  This show had a lot of critical praise this year and I was expecting more nominations (NICK OFFERMAN!!!).  It should be in the writing and supporting acting categories as well this year, so while I’d love to see this pull an upset, it’s lack of support thus far has kept me pessimistic.  Still I’m hoping for a 30 Rock Season 1 type win that comes out of nowhere to surprise me.

The Office:
Tape A: “Andy’s Play” & “China”
Tape B: “PDA” & “Threat Level Midnight”
Tape C: “Garage Sale” & “Goodbye, Michael”

Well one of the tapes, Tape C, is dynamite.  But I can’t see The Office coming back to win here.  I do think this past season was better than the last 2 or 3 seasons, but the buzz is gone on this show and it’s unfortunately starting to fade away.  In fact, with Carell gone, I predict this will be The Office’s last nomination in this category.  (Though I’d love to be proven wrong.)  Andy’s Play, China and PDA are still solid episodes.  Threat Level Midnight, while great for longtime fans will be awkward and unappealing to voters who only casually get watch this show.  Plus it was a decisive episode critically.

The Big Bang Theory:
Tape A: “The Herb Garden Germination” & “The 21 Second Excitation”
Tape B: “The Justice League Recombination” & “The Engagement Reaction”
Tape C: “The Love Card Displacement” & “The Agreement Dissection”

I’ve only caught a few of these episodes (Agreement Dssection, Justice League, 21 Second Excitation) and the episodes I do see I like.  I do believe it was worthy of a nomination here, but overall I can’t see this winning.  It had a typically rocky 4th season and fell a little out of favor with the critics.  It is the only 4 camera traditional sitcom in the group that will appeal to some voters, but I don’t see how it can overcome the competition.

Community:
Just kidding Community wasn’t even nominated…  WTF Voters?!

Rankings:
Modern Family – 50%
Parks and Recreation – 22%
30 Rock – 15%
Glee – 10%
Big Bang Theory – 2%
Office – 1%

Preference:
Parks and Rec, 30 Rock, Modern Family

Here’s the second to last installment of our Emmys rundown:

Lead Actress in a Comedy Series
Edie Falco – Nurse Jackie – “Rat Falls”
Tina Fey – 30 Rock – “Double Edged Sword”
Laura Linney – The Big C – “Pilot”
Melissa McCarthy – Mike & Molly – “First Date”
Martha Plimpton – Raising Hope – “Say Cheese”
Amy Poehler – Parks and Recreation – “Flu Season”

I’m either going to very excited when this category is announced, or very sad.  It’s 50/50 here.

Laura Linney – Oh brother.  I’ve watched her show just so I can complain here.  She’s 1) not funny. 2) Doing a mediocre job.  3) On a mediocre show.  There should be no reason for her to win this.  Oh wait there’s one reason she’s Laura Linney.   I’m preparing myself to not get to upset when she wins, but I probably still will.  Just cause she’s a serious actress doing a Showtime show does not mean we need to reward them.

Amy Poehler – PLEASE GIVE THIS TO AMY!!!  Poehler has done a remarkable job on a flawless show.  Seriously falwless they didn’t have one misstep of an episode all season.  A lot of that is due to Amy’s ability to do all sorts of comedy.  She deserves this award more than anyone else in the category.  Parks has a little bit of critical support, I hope it’s enough to overcome Linney and get Amy this Emmy!  If the Academy doesn’t want to give Parks the Series award, this would be a great place to recognize the show.

Fey, Plimpton, McCarthy – All these ladies are supper funny and I’m glad we’re getting back to the comedy aspect of this category.  Plimpton especially has a funny tape, you should check it out.  I just think Amy has it if it’s going to a comedienne not just an actress this time around.  If any of these girls won it would be well deserved.

Falco – Her show wasn’t as great or well relieved in it’s 3rd season.  Plus Linney is now the golden girl of Showtime so I don’t see her winning again.

Rankings
Laura Linney – 50%
Amy Poehler – 35%
Melissa McCarthy – 5%
Tina Fey – 5%
Martha Plimpton – 3%
Edie Falco – 2%

Preference: Amy, Tina, Martha

Outstanding Lead Actor in a Comedy Series
Alec Baldwin – 30 Rock – “Respawn”
Steve Carell – Office – “Goodbye, Michael”
Louis C.K. – Louie – “Bully”
Johnny Galecki – The Big Bang Theory – “The Benefactor Factor”
Matt LeBlanc – Episodes – “Episode Seven”
Jim Parsons – The Big Bang Theory – “The Agreement Dissection”

This should be the shortest post yet:  Steve Carell is winning this.

Steve Carell should win this too.  Not only is his episode excellent, but he’s done a great job over the past 7 years.   He needs to win once for this iconic roll and the voters won’t pass him up.

Alec Baldwin is hilarious, though not his best episode of the season, but I hope he doesn’t win cause the blow back would be so big for him.  He can go back to winning next year.

Jim Parsons and Louie C.K. could win.  Parsons is still really funny and C.K. offers something different and moving.  Maybe next year when Carell is gone.

Galecki is a nice nomination, he does good work but gets overshadowed by Parsons showier character.   So its nice to see him included.

Matt LeBlanc’s spot should have gone to Joel McHale in Community…

Rankings:
Steve Carell – 90%
Jim Parsons – 3%
Louie C.K. – 3%
Alec Baldwin – 2%
Johnny Galecki – 1%
Matt LeBlanc – 1%

We start the main acting categories here with Post #6

Supporting Actress in a Comedy Series
Julie Bowen – Modern Family – “Strangers on a Treadmill”
Jane Krakowski – 30 Rock – “Queen of Jordan”
Jane Lynch – Glee – “Funeral”
Sofia Vergara – Modern Family – “Slow Down, Your Neighbors”
Betty White – Hot in Cleveland – “Free Elka”
Kristin Wiig – Saturday Night Live – “Host: Jane Lynch”

Jane Krakowski – Let’s start with Jane, shall we.  I’ve said it close to 200 times on this blog.  Alec Baldwin said it in on his twitter.  Fans and critics have said it everywhere.  Jane Krakowski NEEDS and Emmy for this role.  She is the most consistently hilarious part of this show.  Anytime she’s on screen, even for a second, she elevates the material and sells every little joke and sight gag.  She steals scenes from Tina Fey and Alec Baldwin and can go toe to toe with the best in the business.

That all being said, Jane’s episode submission highlights why it’s so difficult for her to get that Emmy.  She’s never featured to predominantly in the A-story.  So she ends up submitting “Queen of Jordan” which she’s hilarious in, but she’s in the… D-Story?  She’s not very impactful part of this episode.  She’s had some golden story lines like becoming a producer for TGS, that just hang on the sidelines.  I really hope the writers throw her a bone in Season 6.  Give her something huge.  I don’t think she had the A story once this season.  I wish it didn’t matter, this is the supporting actress category a great B story should be enough to win.  But it’s really hard for her to compete when other ladies in this category are featured more.  So while I’m hoping for Krakowski to win, I’m not expecting it.

Jane Lynch – From my understanding Lynch is becoming a smaller and grating presence on a weakening show.  Her character serves no purpose and her one line spitting act is getting old.  However, after watching her scenes in her episode “Funeral” I think she might pull off another win.  Shes moderately funny, at first, but then she takes a big dramatic turn.  She does more in this episode as far as range and impact and is featured more heavily than anyone in this category.  Then in addition she has an additional show case since Kristin Wiig submitted her episode of SNL.   She gets to show off a little funny to voters to go along with the dramatic.  Unless the voters are tied of the Glee hype, I don’t see anything working against her.

Julie Bowen – Bowen is incredibly funny on Modern Family and she submitted very well.  Not only that but like Lynch, she gets a double episode since Vergara submitted “Slow Down Your Neighbors” which is another great showcase for Bowen.  She’s a little crazy in these episodes which is something it takes to win this category.  I’d put her in a close second.

Sofia Vergara – Again, she’s very hilarious and a real scene stealer on Modern Family.  But her submission may be the worst of the bunch.  She’s in the C story and besides a couple of scenes she absent from the episode.

Kristin Wiig – The Academy in recent years has taken to SNL in the acting categories.  They moved the SNL cast to supporting and hosts to guests instead of variety performance.  Wiig is has dominated this show for a few years now and is great in her episode.  I can’t see her breaking though in this category yet.  There’s just too many funny women to beat here out here.

Betty White – And then there’s Betty White.  I’m sick of the Betty White love just for the sake of Betty White.   She’s very funny but I’d rather she’s only rewarded when she deserving.   I know people like this show and shes funny, but it’s not deserving of a win here.

Ranking:
Jane Lynch – 40%
Julie Bowen – 25%
Betty White – 20%
Jane Krakowski – 7%
Sofia Vergara – 5%
Kristin Wiig – 3%

Preference: Krakowski, Bowen, Vergara

5th installment will cover the directing race.

Outstanding Directing for a Comedy Series
30 Rock – Beth McCarthy Miller for “Live Show”
How I Met Your Mother – Pamela Fryman for “Subway Wars”
Modern Family – Michael Allen Spiller for “Halloween”
Modern Family – Steven Levitan for “See You Next Fall”
Modern Family – Gail Mancuso for “Slow Down, Your Neighbors”

I actually think 30 Rock has a decent chance here!

30 Rock – “Live Show” – Beth McCarthy Miller is well respected in the industry, she’s directed over 200 episodes of Saturday Night Live as well as a handful of specials and many TV episodes.  She knows what she’s doing live and it shows in the execution of the Live Show.  You might have not loved the different tone, slower pace or gimmickyness  of the Live Show, but you have to admit it was beautifully directed.  Beth McCarthy Miller had to do more work, more technical direction, and be on her game more than the rest of the nominees.  She should win.   This is her 7th nomination and she should finally pull it off here.

Modern Family – “Halloween” – This is 30 Rock’s competition.  It’s a big episode as far as Modern Family is concerned.  There’s a lot going on, costumes, site gags galore, and a lot of scenes involving the whole family.  It is impressively directed. Spiller even got the Directors Guild Award beating out Miller for “Live Show”.  It also comes with Modern Family buzz which could help.

Modern Family  – “See You Next Fall” and “Slow Down, Your Neighbors” – Fine episodes but if Modern Family wins here it’ll go to Spiller, so there’s not much use discussing them.

How I Met Your Mother – “Subway Wars” – How I Met Your Mother is underrated as far as critics are concerned.  It has a lot of single camera elements it blends into a four camera show.  “Subway Wars” was a particularly ambitious episode that had all the characters running though the city and meeting up briefly with each other along the way.  It could have been a confusing or dumpy episode but Fryman told it very well.  However, I don’t think she’ll have a chance here.  It’s just a really strong field.

Predictions:
30 Rock “Live Show” – 40%
Modern Family “Halloween” – 35%
Modern Family “Slow Down, Your Neighbors” – 15%
How I Met Your Mother – “Subway Wars” – 5%
Modern Family “See you Next Fall” – 5%

This is the 4th installment of a now 9 part series since I went ahead and did tech awards.

Note: I’m page breaking the previous posts cause the page is getting really long…

Outstanding Writing for a Comedy Series
30 Rock – Matt Hubbard “Reaganing”
Episodes – David Crane and Jeffrey Klarik for “Episode Seven”
Louie – Louis CK for “Poker/Divorce”
Modern Family – Steven Levitan and Jeffrey Richman for “Caught in the Act”
The Office – Greg Daniels for “Goodbye, Michael”

When nominations came out this category made my scratch my head.  It seems hollow.  It’s missing a few nominations for Parks and Rec and Community. Plus with the exception of Louie, the episodes of the shows nominated weren’t even the strongest of their series.

30 Rock – “Reaganing” is a riot.  It’s hilarious.  I just rewatched it and it’s unbelievable how quick the writing is in this episode.  The B story with Jenna and the cakes is one of the best B stories and it develops nicely.   If there is a flaw it’s in the structure of the A story with Liz and Jack.  It sort of hangs.  Plus it might be a bit off color.  And yet it’s not even 30 Rock’s best writing episode of the season.  I can’t believe “Mrs. Donaghy” and “When it Rains, it Pours” were excluded.  Those would have given Robert Carlock and Jack Burditt a chance at a win.  (Hubbard already won for “Reunion.”)  It seems like voters just checked him off due to his previous win without looking to closely.  As far as a chance to win, I’d say it’s the most funny tape.  Of course I’m biased, but scientifically this tape has the most jokes.

Episodes – Hmmmm… It can’t tell if this is just rewarding David Crane (Creator of Friends) or what.  The episode is fine.  Maybe even good.  The writing is smart and witty.  But there were many more episodes more worthy.  Parks and Rec’s “The Fight” and “Flu Season” for example.  Or Community’s “flashback” episode.  Or the other 30 Rock episodes.  I can’t see this wining.  It’s too average.

Louie – This episode is awesome.  If you’re not watching Louie you should check it out for something completely different and original.   The writing has layers and its written for more than entertainment.  It has some gravitas and it sticks out in this category.  I’d say it’s likely to win.  Louis CK is well respected in the business and a brilliant writer.  If voters are ok going with a different choice this will be unstoppable.

Modern Family – “Caught in the Act” wasn’t my favorite episode but it’s sure memorable.  The writing is really great on this show and this episode is no exception.  Still, its not as funny as “Reaganing.”  Plus a lot of the humor is situational and not from the writing.  It does however come along with Modern Family’s momentum.  If voters lock into the attitude that this show is unbeatable

The Office – Ok I’m going to say it, this is the weakest episode of the bunch.  I know you’re thinking it was amazing it made you cry when Michael turned in his microphone.  Jim and Michael sharing a moment.  Pam showing up just in time, ect ect.  And I agree it was a brilliant  send off, but a poor episode.  The Andy stuff with Will Ferrel was TERRIBLE.  IT dragged down the episode.  It was predicable formulaic and the jokes were just not that funny.  Again it seemed like a nomination because they had to recognize the show.  Hopefully voters see what I do.

I see this as a neck and neck race between Modern Family and their momentum vs Louie.  30 Rock could spoil if voters go for the comedy.

Prediction:
Louie – 33%
Modern Family -33%
30 Rock – 20%
The Office – 10%
Episodes – 4%

Preference: 30 Rock, Louie, Modern Family

Interesting side note: at 11 nominations for the series, 30 Rock is just 2 nominations shy of tying Cheers and Larry Sanders Show for most nominated show in this category.
Also 6 of the 7 most recent wins in this category have gone to Pilot episodes so it’s hard to judge what voters are looking for…

Third installation here we go!

Ok some might consider this the boring part.  I’m going to break down 30 Rock’s nominations in the tech categories.  But bare with me, I think 30 Rock has a decent chance in some of these.  These awards (as well as guest actor/actress) are presented Sept 10th!

Outstanding Technical Direction, Camerawork, Video Control for a Series:
American Idol – Finale
Daily Show – Episode 15135
Dancing with the Stars – 1104A
Saturday Night Live – Host: Justin Timberlake
30 Rock – Live Show: West Coast

I don’t know what to think about this category.  30 Rock’s never competed in this before as it is entered for it’s Live Show.  In the past though this award has gone to shows like American Idol, Dancing with the Stars, ect over shows like SNL, Big Bang Theory.  If voters think this is unique enough, 30 Rock could win, but I have a feeling they are less impressed by the four camera and more impressed by big productions.

More after the break

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Part 2 of the 8-ish part series starts now!

Guest Actress in a Comedy Series

Nominees:

Elizabeth Banks in 30 Rock for “Double-Edged Sword”
Kristin Chenoweth in Glee for “Rumors”
Tina Fey in Saturday Night Live for “Host: Tina Fey”
Dot Marie Jones in Glee for “Never Been Kissed”
Cloris Leachman in Raising Hope for “Don’t Vote for This Episode”
Gwyneth Paltrow in Glee for “The Substitute”

Disclaimer: Since I have only seen bits and pieces of Glee I am not qualified for discussing this category… help me out please!

First of all HOW WERE SHERRI SHEPHERD AND ELAINE STRITCH NOT NOMINATED?!?!  Sherri should be winning this category for “Queen of Jordan” but since that’s unfortunately not happening let’s get on to the nominees.

Elizabeth Banks -  She did a fine job on the show, but I’m not sure if Banks was ever as funny as her character.  She did submit her best effort in “Double-Edged Sword.”  I liked all her Canadian cracks.  Overall though she may have the weakest tape, at least of the ones I’ve seen.

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The Emmys are just two weeks away!  So  I decided to make a series of posts breaking down 30 Rock’s chances in the categories they were nominated.  And while the chances this year might not be in this shows favor, the categories are still pretty fun.  So without further ado:

Part 1 of an 8-ish part series: Guest Actor in a Comedy Series

Nominees:

Will Arnett – 30 Rock in “Plan B”
Matt Damon – 30 Rock in “Double-Edged Sword”
Idris Elba – The Big C in “Blue Eyed-Iris”
Zach Galifianankis – Saturday Night Live in “Host: Zach Galifinaanakis”
Nathan Lane – Modern Family in “Boys Night”
Justin Timberlake – Saturday Night Live in “Host: Justin Timberlake”

30 Rock is a double nominee in this category, but I don’t think that will help too much.  Let’s break down the nominees:

Idris Elba – No.  He’s a fine actor but he’s playing a boring part on a mediocre show.  His inclusion in this category is baffling.  He just can’t win.

Justin Timberlake & Zach Galifinanakis -  The Saturday Night Live nominees here are tricky.  Since SNL hosts moved into the guest acting categories from the “Variety Performance category” two years ago, 75% of the guest acting comedy prizes have gone to SNL hosts.  (Timberlake, Tina Fey, and Betty White.)  Timberlake and Galifinanakis are phenomenal hosts and extremely funny throughout, but JT’s episode is just better by far.  Less weird too which is good for voters to connect with.  The only reasons I can see Justin loosing this is because he already won and this years episode is nothing that new.  (The whole show was recycled sketches.)  Plus there are 4 other deserving nominees they may want to reward rather than a repeat winner.

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Tina Fey, Robert Carlock and Beth McCarthy gave an interview with Deadline Hollywood about the upcoming Emmys, Baldwins “last season” and some other topics. It seems like everyone at 30 Rock is rooting for McCarthy (nominated for directing the Live Show.)

DEADLINE: Are people gunning for 30 Rock since it’s been on the air since 2006?
TINA FEY: It’s like you’re reading something harshly critical about the show, and you go: ‘This isn’t even a writer, this is an Internet poster,” and you have to separate yourself. Having worked at Saturday Night Live, you ride the cycle of, ‘We’re discovering it, we hate it, it’s the worst it’s ever been, it’s coming back, we’re rediscovering it.’ You ride that Ferris wheel for years there. It’s a perception that is inevitable, and you just keep doing your work.
ROBERT CARLOCK: We just want Beth to win.

DEADLINE: Beth, how many times have you been nominated for an Emmy?
MCCARTHY: I think, like, seven. And I will graciously lose again to an episode of Modern Family.
FEY: Because that [mockumentary] style is so hard to shoot.
MCCARTHY: But you know what? I will say I love my category this year. I love all the directors that were nominated this year. There was no, like, ‘huh?’ Everybody is great.
CARLOCK: If somebody beats you, Beth, we’re going to do a live show next year and make them direct it.

See the full interview here.